€300M Green Steel
Innovation Prize
Accelerating breakthrough technologies for carbon-neutral steel production
Total Fund Size
Active Investments
Carbon Neutral Target
Why Apply?
Capital & Resources
- ✓ Up to €50M investment per company
- ✓ Access to ArcelorMittal's global facilities
- ✓ Technical validation and pilot testing
- ✓ Co-investment from strategic partners
Market Access
- ✓ Direct path to commercialization
- ✓ Offtake agreements with major OEMs
- ✓ European and global market entry
- ✓ Regulatory and policy support
Technical Excellence
- ✓ World-class R&D collaboration
- ✓ Access to 50+ steel experts
- ✓ State-of-the-art testing facilities
- ✓ IP protection and licensing
Strategic Partnership
- ✓ Long-term strategic alignment
- ✓ Board representation rights
- ✓ Technology transfer opportunities
- ✓ Global scaling support
Investment Criteria
Technology Readiness
TRL 4-9 with clear path to scale
Carbon Impact
>50% CO2 reduction potential
Economics
Path to cost competitiveness
Scalability
Industrial-scale potential
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For Green Steel Companies
Portfolio Overview
Track investments and performance metrics
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Capital Deployed
ETS Savings
Portfolio TRL
Deal Pipeline
Discover Green Steel Technologies
Explore breakthrough innovations in sustainable steel production
H2 Green Steel
Integrated green hydrogen steel production
Boston Metal
Molten oxide electrolysis at 1600°C
Blastr Green Steel
H2-DRI with renewable power integration
H2 Green Steel
Green hydrogen DRI challenging the physics of Fe2O3 + 3H2 → 2Fe + 3H2O
The Brutal Physics of Green Steel
Primary Physics Constraint
This reaction requires 50kg of hydrogen per ton of steel. At $5/kg green H2, that's $250/ton just for hydrogen. No amount of wishful thinking changes this chemistry.
Theoretical Limit
H2 Utilization
Energy Balance
Process Temperature
Physics Factor Breakdown
Overall Physics Score
Operating at 78% of physical limits. Further improvements require breakthrough discoveries in materials or novel physics approaches.
Achieved 65% of required performance metrics. Steady innovation trajectory but significant gaps remain in cost competitiveness.
70% maturity level shows demonstrated pilots but limited commercial deployment experience at scale.
Score of 45 reflects the challenge of reducing iron ore without carbon. The Fe2O3 + 3H2 reaction requires precise conditions and massive hydrogen volumes.
Physics Verdict
H2 Green Steel operates within favorable physics constraints. 50kg H2/ton steel requirement presents manageable challenges with current hydrogen production trajectory.
Sweden Infrastructure Reality
Renewable Grid
H2 Infrastructure
Heavy Industry Base
Carbon Price
Infrastructure Score
Sweden offers 85% infrastructure compatibility. World-class renewable power and steel industry expertise support rapid scaling.
90% resource security from abundant iron ore (LKAB) and renewable electricity. Only hydrogen production needs scaling.
80% manufacturing readiness from established steel industry (SSAB) with decades of expertise and skilled workforce.
75% logistics capability through established ports (Luleå) and rail connections to European markets.
Critical Infrastructure Gaps
• Green hydrogen production capacity: Need 250,000 tons H2/year
• Pipeline infrastructure: H2 transport from electrolyzer to DRI plant
• Grid reinforcement: 800MW additional renewable capacity
Critical Material Dependencies
Iron Ore (Pellets)
LKAB provides world's highest quality iron ore pellets (67% Fe) ideal for hydrogen reduction.
Green Hydrogen
Requires 250,000 tons/year. Current Swedish production: ~1,000 tons/year. Massive scaling required.
Renewable Power
800MW secured through 15-year PPAs with Vattenfall and others. Among cheapest renewable power globally.
Material Risk Assessment
| Material | Criticality | Supply Risk | Price Risk | Overall Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore | Low | Low | Low | 5% |
| Green H2 | Critical | High | High | 85% |
| Electricity | Medium | Low | Medium | 25% |
Economic Reality Check
Cost Structure vs. Blast Furnace
| Cost Component | H2 Green Steel | Blast Furnace | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Materials | €180/ton | €160/ton | +€20 |
| Energy (H2 vs Coal) | €250/ton | €120/ton | +€130 |
| Operating Costs | €70/ton | €80/ton | -€10 |
| Carbon Costs (ETS) | €0/ton | €40/ton | -€40 |
| Total | €520/ton | €400/ton | +€120/ton |
Path to Cost Parity
Required Changes
- ✓ H2 cost reduction: €5 → €2.5/kg
- ✓ Carbon price increase: €85 → €150/tCO2
- ✓ Scale economies: 5Mt/year production
- ✓ Technology learning: 15% efficiency gain
Timeline
- • 2026: €100/ton premium
- • 2028: €50/ton premium
- • 2030: €20/ton premium
- • 2032: Cost parity achieved
Political & Regulatory Landscape
Carbon Pricing
Policy Support
Permitting Speed
Public Support
Political Score
Policy Advantages
• Sweden's €130/tCO2 carbon price creates €130/ton advantage over imports
• EU Innovation Fund provides €400M grant (27% of CAPEX)
• CBAM protection starting 2026 adds €85/ton import barrier
• Green steel mandate in public procurement by 2027
Strong carbon price of €130/tCO2 significantly improves competitiveness of clean technologies versus fossil-based steel production.
EU Green Deal and Fit for 55 package provide clear long-term signals. 2050 net-zero legally binding with interim 2030 targets.
Risk Profile Analysis
Technology Risk
Technology confidence of 75% based on HYBRIT pilot success. H2-DRI proven at 1Mt/year scale by Midrex. Main risk is integration complexity at 5Mt scale.
Material Risk
Critical vulnerability in hydrogen supply. Need 250,000 tons/year but Swedish production currently ~1,000 tons. Price volatility threatens economics.
Market Risk
55% market maturity shows growing demand but competition with entrenched blast furnace production remains challenging without policy support.
Execution Risk
60% execution probability based on first-of-kind integration complexity. Simultaneous construction of H2 plant, DRI, and EAF creates interfaces risk.
Overall Risk Score
Moderate risks with mitigation strategies available. Primary concern is hydrogen supply chain development and cost trajectory. Technology risk largely de-risked through HYBRIT pilot. Market risk mitigated by strategic offtakes and policy support.
Critical Success Factors
- • H2 production cost < €3/kg by 2027
- • Carbon price maintains > €100/tCO2
- • Construction on schedule (Q1 2026 start)
- • Automotive offtakes remain firm
- • Grid stability for 800MW renewable
- • CBAM implementation as planned
Scaling Analysis
Overall Scaling Potential
Deployment velocity limited to 45% due to complex construction, long lead times (4-5 years), and site-specific engineering for integrated H2 + DRI + EAF facilities.
75% funding availability from strong ESG investor appetite, government backing (€400M), and strategic investor interest (automotive OEMs).
80% workforce strength from established steel industry (SSAB) with transferable skills. H2 expertise growing through HYBRIT program.
85% learning potential promises cost reductions through manufacturing scale, process optimization, and H2 cost declines following solar PV trajectory.
70% network value emerges from growing H2 infrastructure, green steel ecosystem, and customer coalitions creating positive feedback loops.
Global Scaling Roadmap
Total addressable market: 500Mt/year premium steel by 2035
Ask the Physics Machine
No wishful thinking. Only constraints. Ask about hydrogen requirements, thermodynamics, energy balances, or why your favorite assumption is wrong.
Ready to discuss the physics of green steel. The Fe2O3 + 3H2 reaction requires 50kg H2/ton - this is chemistry, not opinion. What constraints do you want to understand?
Can H2 consumption go below 50kg/ton?
PHYSICS REALITY: No. This is stoichiometry, not engineering.
Fe2O3 + 3H2 → 2Fe + 3H2O
Molecular weights:
- Fe2O3: 159.7 g/mol
- H2: 2.016 g/mol
- Fe: 55.845 g/mol
To produce 1 ton (1000 kg) of Fe:
- Moles of Fe needed: 17,907 mol
- Moles of H2 needed: 26,861 mol (1.5x due to stoichiometry)
- Mass of H2: 54.1 kg theoretical minimum
In practice, you need ~50kg due to 92-95% H2 utilization efficiency.
Going below this violates conservation of mass. Physics doesn't negotiate.
Investment Decision Framework
H2 Green Steel shows strong scaling potential in Sweden with score 74/100. Physics constraints are challenging but surmountable with current technology trajectory. Primary bottleneck: hydrogen supply chain development.
H2 Green Steel - Confidential Documents
Due diligence materials. Access expires in 28 days.
Document Library
Process Flow Diagrams
Document Preview
Detailed process flow showing H2 production, DRI shaft furnace,
and EAF integration with material and energy balances
Document Activity
Series B Investment Round
H2 Green Steel - €300M funding round
Round Overview
Round Size: €300M Series B at €1.5B pre-money valuation
Lead Investor: Vargas Holding with €100M commitment
Target Close: Q1 2025 with rolling close option
Use of Funds: Boden facility construction, working capital, R&D
Current Investor Commitments
Investment Terms
| Security Type | Series B Preferred |
| Pre-Money Valuation | €1.5B |
| Liquidation Preference | 1x non-participating |
| Board Rights | 1 seat per €50M+ |
| Pro-rata Rights | For €25M+ investors |
| Anti-Dilution | Weighted average |
| Drag-Along Rights | 60% approval |
Join the Round
Strategic Value
ETS compliance savings: €240M annually
CBAM competitive advantage: €85/ton by 2026
Strategic Offtake Agreements
Securing long-term revenue through binding purchase commitments
Committed Purchasers
Master Offtake Agreement Terms
This binding pre-purchase agreement secures 40% of production capacity at a green premium of 20% above market price for zero-carbon steel meeting EU taxonomy requirements.
| Contract Term | Value |
|---|---|
| Base Price Formula | |
| Take-or-Pay Percentage | |
| Carbon Intensity Requirement | |
| Certification Standard | |
| Force Majeure Threshold | |
| Penalty for Non-Delivery |
Project Milestones
Revenue Security
CBAM Advantage
- No CBAM certificates required
- €85/ton advantage vs. imports
- Protected market position
Regulatory Sandbox
Simulate policy scenarios and their impact on green steel competitiveness
EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)
ActiveCarbon pricing directly impacts the cost advantage of green steel over conventional production methods.
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
ActiveImport tariffs on high-carbon steel protect domestic green steel producers from unfair competition.
Green Public Procurement Mandate
ProposedRequiring public projects to use low-carbon steel creates guaranteed demand for green producers.
EU Green Steel Standard
ProposedMaximum carbon intensity threshold for steel to qualify as "green" under EU taxonomy.
Green Steel Investment Aid
ActiveDirect capital subsidies for green steel projects under EU Innovation Fund and national schemes.
Industrial Renewable PPA Support
ActiveContracts for Difference (CfD) and grid priority for industrial renewable energy consumers.
Competitiveness Score
Green Steel Advantage Score
Economic Impact
Policy Recommendations
Optimal Policy Mix:
• Maintain ETS > €80/tCO2
• Implement 50%+ GPP mandate
• Secure 40% investment aid
• Lock in renewable PPAs